Award Inanity

If one is looking for unpredictability, the Academy Awards is not for you.  Thanks to earlier guild award results, most results are determinable to a near certainty.  Add to that an increasing amount of "chatter" between those who cover the awards race and those who actually vote, and that leaves little room for surprise.  They are even able to predict when the guild result will differ from the AA result, such as the winner of the Supporting Actress award.  The biggest question mark this year is Best Picture-but only because there was a tie for the PGA award. 

Does any of this really matter?  Not really.  I have learned to pay little heed to the winners, as the Academy membership has all too frequently demonstrated poor taste in movies.  One would expect these people to be up on their movies, but that is a fallacy.  Their opinions do not stray far from the hoi polloi.  Very simplistic with little intelligence on display, these voters are looking for an emotional, moving experience, not a movie that inspires thought and/or controversy.  The last thing they want is to be challenged.  Sympathetic characters are a must.  This has been the common assumption about these voters for a while (and it goes way back-think How Green Was My Valley over Citizen Kane), and this idea is reinforced by the eight "Brutally Honest Oscar Voter Ballots."  This year is even more predictable than usual, if the Gurus o' Gold and Gold Derby results are any indication.

Best Picture-This is the one major category that is a bit of a tossup.  On the one hand, Gravity won the DGA, which is considered to be the best predictor.  If it had received one more vote for the PGA, everyone would consider it a lock to win Best Picture.  But it didn't.  The tie vote made people think that 12 Years had at least a chance.  And in the last few days the consensus has turned toward 12 Years as the most likely winner.  I am leaning toward 12 Years for one reason-a sci-fi film that is heavy in technical achievement but light in storytelling is not the type of movie that screams Best Picture.  Then again, movies about African American racial conflict have not had much success at these awards either.  Another advantage that Gravity appears to have is that all of the voters will have seen it, while the intensity of the depictions of slavery in 12 Years is said to have turned off some members of the Academy to the point that they would not view the entire film.  That is a key point, and Brokeback Mountain faced a similar situation.  This explains another potential advantage for Gravity, which is the preferential voting system.  It seems like the movie more likely to receive second place votes, as 12 Years is the type of polarizing film that will either be at the top of voters' ranking or towards the bottom.  I still have to come back to the subject matter and say that 12 Years feels a lot more like a Best Picture, and it will eke out a victory.  Winner-12 Years a Slave

Best Director-Cuaron has this one wrapped up.  A split between Director and Best Picture does not happen very often, but the only way it will not happen is if Gravity also wins Best Picture. Winner-Alfonso Cuaron

Best Actor-The Academy loves physical transformations.  Winner-Matthew McConaughey

Best Actress-This was the first lock of the season.  Nothing has changed. Winner-Cate Blanchett.

Best Supporting Actor-This was another transformation.  Plus this category is not considered to be very strong this year.  Winner-Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress-Jennifer Lawrence would have this one locked up, if not for her win last year.  That leaves an actress who is also benefiting from those people who want to reward 12 Years a Slave, but who voted for Gravity in the other major categories. Winner-Lupita Nyong'o.  By the way, these four winners have to be the most difficult group of names to spell in the history of the awards.  Even Jared Leto is difficult, when you consider how many ways there are to spell "Jared."  One last thing-if the blue-hairs have their way, this might go with under-the-radar June Squibb.

Best Original Screenplay-Her has a chance here, but I find it difficult to believe that American Hustle will be shutout.  Winner-American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay-Academy members have too short of an attention span for movies like the Before trilogy.  Winner-12 Years a Slave

Best Feature Documentary-20 Feet From Stardom is the favorite, but its subject matter feels too slight, so I believe it will be upset by either The Act of Killing or The Square.  Winner-The Square

Best Foreign Language Film-Going with the film that has been a big winner elsewhere. Winner-The Great Beauty

Best Animated Feature-They should eliminate this category now that Pixar has gone south. Winner-Frozen

Best Cinematography-Get ready for lots of technical wins by one film.  Winner-Gravity

Best Costume Design-I can imagine some people being annoyed by the clothing in American Hustle.  Winner-The Great Gatsby

Best Film Editing-This category often does not match with a weak Best Picture winner.  This is also a chance to award a film that might not win anything else.  Winner-Captain Phillips

Best Production Design-If this film is going to win one award, this is it.  Winner-The Great Gatsby

Best Make-Up-I think it is safe to assume that most voters failed to watch that Jackass nominee, even if it deserves to win, which some make-up experts believe to be the case.  Winner-Dallas Buyers Club

Best Score-One of the nominees leaned on the score more than any other.  Winner-Gravity

Best Song-This is another category that should be eliminated.  Winner-Let It Go

Best Sound Mixing-Winner-Gravity

Best Sound Editing-Winner-Gravity

Best Visual Effects-Winner-Gravity

Best Documentary Short-These last three categories are always a crapshoot.  Even the so-called experts are usually stymied here.  Pick two out of three of these correctly and you have a very good chance of winning your Oscar pool.  That being said, I read something about a change in policy on these, as now dvd screeners are sent out, meaning that the potential pool of voters becomes larger, and thus maybe a little easier to predict.  I still think that more than half of the eligible voters abstain from voting in these categories.  In this particular category, everyone seems to be predicting the same winner.  I still will not be surprised to see something else win.  Winner-The Lady in Number 6:  Music Saved My Life

Best Live Action Short-Winner-Helium

Best Animated Short-Winner-Get a Horse!