I follow two sports teams. Both are currently plagued by an unreasonable segment of the fanbase. Patience is a virtue possessed by an alarmingly small percentage of people if these fans are any indication. The Cubs have been in rebuild mode ever since Theo Epstein took over. A proper rebuild of an organization with a poor farm system and a major league team with few assets is always going to take time. The idea is that the farm system starts producing, and then you can sign a few free agents to fill in the weak spots in your lineup. The holdup is the time it takes for the farm system to develop longtime major leaguers. Three years for them to start trickling in, with a steady flow by the fifth year. This timeline means that it probably will not be until the fourth year (2015) before the team has a winning record, and 2016 before it is a legitimate playoff contender. How hard is that to understand? Some people apparently believe that this is the wrong way to build a contender. These people never have an answer for what is the right way. The Yankees, whose farm system has not been very productive lately, have had one championship in the last thirteen years, despite far outspending every other team.
Tanaka would have been an interesting signing, but the price might have been too high. There are three issues with Tanaka. First, no one knows how effective he will be against MLB pitching. Second, can he remain healthy? He has thrown a considerable number of pitches in the Japanese league. His young age made him very attractive to many teams like the Cubs, but the mileage on his arm might quickly start to take its toll. Another factor in his health is the forkball pitch. Very few forkball pitchers are able to stay healthy for very long. He might not throw it near as much as Hideo Nomo, but if he is throwing 30-40 a game that could still be very hard on his arm. The third issue is the length of the contract. Seven years is a long time to rely on a pitcher to be healthy. The last few years of that contract could be an albatross to the Yankees. Even worse, if Tanaka does pitch very well and stays healthy, he can opt out after four years. If he is bad, the Yankees are stuck with him for another three years. Maybe by then they will be done paying Arod. I know that Epstein has a policy against "no trade clauses." I wonder if he also has a policy against player "opt out clauses," which seems to me is worse for the team than the no trade clause.
Illinois' basketball team has been in rebuild mode for a season and a half, and already people are bemoaning the lack of success on the court. This year's team consists of three Weber players, two transfers, and five freshmen. Three other transfers are sitting out this year. Considering the lack of recruiting time Groce had for that first recruiting class, he did quite well considering at least three of those freshmen have already shown themselves to be legitimate Big Ten players. Recruiting success can only be judged over a period of years. Only a few programs "recruit themselves," meaning the school attracts the biggest recruits regardless of the coach. Illinois is not one of those schools.
Another problem with the program is that early season success leads to raised expectations for the Big Ten Season. For whatever reason, Illinois has had a tough time with the Big Ten schedule over the last few years. The most popular theory is that the Weber's players are not physically or mentally capable of competing in the physical Big Ten, where sometimes talent is overwhelmed by a will to win. That might apply to this year's team. But I would stress three big reasons why the team has struggled lately. First, Ravonte Rice has been slowed due to an issue with his groin. Since he relies on driving to the basket for the vast majority of his points, obviously his production has fallen. Second, this team really needs a point guard or two. Third, this is a dreadful shooting team. The best shooters are the freshman and the transfers who cannot play this year.
The good news? The 2014-15 team only loses one player, the erratic Bertrand, and gains a couple more freshman, along with those three transfers I previously referred to. That being said, it might not be until the following year before it will be possible to judge Groce, as that will be the first team without any Weber players.
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