The 2014 nominees for the Baseball Hall of Fame are soon to be announced. If I had a vote, I would not vote for someone who I feel used PEDs to enhance his performance. Of course, not everyone who used PEDs has been outed. So then how do I decide who to vote for? Somewhat similar to the way that juries decide whether someone is guilty. Only I am using a civil burden of proof, i.e. more likely than not.
What evidence do I use? What do your eyes tell you? With Mark McGuire, it was obvious. With Maddux, it was obvious that he was not using. Statistics are really more useful than the eye test. Did the player accomplish something in a season that seems incredible, if not record breaking? Did the player achieve some of his better seasons at an advanced age (35+)? Those two questions go a long way toward eliminating all the questionable candidates.
Some people claim that this is merely guesswork, and that it is impossible to be sure about the PED use that has not been confirmed. Yes, it is guesswork, but the HOF voters have already made a lot of questionable choices in the past, and my choices will at the very least match that level of responsibility.
The steroid era pretty much began with Canseco in 1986. McGuire showed up in 1987. Lenny Dykstra was a small guy who appeared more bulked up each year, culminating in statistics that did not look right for a guy who was a mediocre hitter for the Mets. Regardless of Dykstra's PED use, his career numbers are nowhere close to HOF caliber.
1993 was Mike Piazza's rookie year. Piazza's numbers each year were stunning for a catcher, very Yogi Berra like. Not for a second do I believe that they were legitimate. The story on Piazza is that he was drafted in the 62nd round by the Dodgers as a favor to Tommy Lasorda. Lasorda thought so little of Piazza's hitting ability that he advised him to learn the catching position. And yet, Piazza was able to quickly transform himself into one of the greatest, if not the greatest, hitting catchers of all time. Steroid use probably became much more widespread beginning in 1992, and the numbers started to become outrageous in the strike shortened season of 1994. The first testing of any kind was 2003. Piazza's peak years were from 1993 to 2002. After 2002 his highest batting average was .286 and his highest homerun total was 22. Are we to assume that it is a coincidence that his numbers immediately dropped off the very same year that testing began? He turned 34 in 2003, so a fall in production could be expected. But still, it is quite a coincidence. Too much of a coincidence for me.
Jeff Bagwell is another guy whose best years fit almost entirely in the peak steroid era. He didn't hit over 20 homers until his fourth full length season. That season, 1994 was the strike year. He hit 39 home runs in only 110 games. 39 home runs, in a shortened season, when he had never hit over 20 home runs before, and last but not least, playing half his games in the hitter unfriendly Astrodome. Seems like quite an unlikely feat. Bagwell's last productive year was 2004 (which was also Bonds' last big year), the year that baseball began penalizing players for testing positive. Bagwell admitted taking Andro, which was later named a banned substance. Sure, his career essentially ended at age 36, which seems "normal." But with the testing in place it would have been very difficult for him to take the same substances that prolonged the careers of so many hitters pre-2004. Another peculiar aspect of Bagwell's career is that he was not much of a power hitter in the minor leagues (only 6 homers?), which is why Boston traded him for relief pitcher Larry Anderson. Bagwell fails the "more likely than not" standard.
The other guys, Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, and Thomas all pass the test. Biggio is a little iffy to me because he was more of a longevity guy. I would not put him in this year. Thomas is the stereotypical big first baseman with a natural body type that is going to result in a lot of home runs. Is it possible he took something? Sure. But Thomas was a first round draft pick who was always expected to be a big power hitter. He also always had that big hulking body throughout his career-no huge transformation during the off-season. Originally Thomas was given a football scholarship at Auburn before switching to baseball due to injuries.
What about Jack Morris? Well, it is kinda ridiculous that one of the writers voted for Morris and left Maddux off his ballot. However, it is hard to argue with his reason that he would not vote in players from the steroid era. Except, Morris played well into the 90s. Who can say for sure that Morris didn't have help during those later years? Morris is quite the anomaly for somehow managing to stay healthy throughout his career despite throwing a ton of forkballs and a ton of innings. In fact, I cannot think of another pitcher who threw that many forkballs who came close to having a long career. Suspicious, but I'm just going to call Morris a freak of nature and assume he did not use PEDs. But was Morris good enough for the HOF? The numbers seem to say no. But I would put him in for one reason-he was the most dominant pitcher in the 80s who had good enough numbers to be seriously considered for the HOF. Go ahead and look at the list of the top pitchers from the 80s. Either they had better decades in the 70s or 90s, or they flamed out too quickly. The two Dodgers pitchers, Valenzuela and Hershiser, are good examples of guys who were dominant for a few years and then played out several seasons of mediocrity. Morris should be in, though evidently he will have to wait for the Veterans Committee to put him in.
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