Drop the Pretentiousness

Awards shows are promotional pieces.  Perhaps at some point they were geared more towards the ideal of rewarding excellence.  That time is long past, for various reasons.  The voters' qualifications are suspect.  Many nominations and wins are purchased.  In the case of the Academy Awards, without a "campaign" one will be lucky to receive a nomination, and a win is nearly impossible.  This includes glad-handing and working the room during the season.

Regardless, I have a fascination with the whole process.  How the movies rise and fall in the rankings, the problem with being the early favorite, the mystery movie no one has seen that receives the end of the year release.  How the whining and the attacks keep the dialogue going.  The resulting four hour borefest cannot help but be anticlimactic .

Best Picture appears to come down to two movies.  12 Years a Slave is considered too intense for the older crowd that dominates the Academy electorate.  If they turn it off thirty minutes into the movie, they probably are not going to vote for it.  American Hustle is a showcase for actors, which is beneficial because the actors' branch is by far the biggest branch in the Academy.  It will be hard to beat if it manages nominations for Christian Bale and Jeremy Renner or Bradley Cooper, in addition to Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams.  By the way, most people consider her to be iffy for a nomination due to the veteran actresses in the category this year, but Adams has two things going for her: four previous nominations, and the most difficult role in the movie, in addition to juggling accents.

The Wolf of Wall Street's unorthodox handling of a serious topic has been a turnoff to some people, and its meaning and purpose have been misconstrued by people who cannot see past the broader elements of the film.  Saving Mr. Banks has a story that normally results in victory come awards time, but some people might be turned off by the unwarranted deification of Walt Disney.  Gravity, the favorite to many, is too dominated by special effects (i.e. Star Wars and Avatar).  Gravity's consolation prize might be in the director category.  None of the other potential nominees have ever been on anyone's radar to win the big prize, and it is too late now for that to change.